Marcel Berlins, GUARDIAN : le prochain Président de la France se nommera FRANCOIS BAYROU
Marcel Berlins signe un article pour le Guardian, dans lequel il annonce que François Bayrou sera le prochain Président de la France :
“La moitié du pays déteste un candidat. L’autre moitié déteste son rival. Arrive François Bayrou, le prochain président de la France.
Suivez mon conseil, immédiatement. Précipitez-vous et prenez le pari que le prochain Président de la France se nommera François Bayrou.”
Resign yourself to a French leader with even less charisma than the next British prime minister
Marcel Berlins
Wednesday February 21, 2007
The Guardian
Take my advice, immediately. Rush to your nearest betting shop and place a bet that the next president of France will be called François Bayrou, about whom you may not know much. Unfortunately, Messrs Ladbroke, William Hill and Paddy Power may be equally ignorant of M Bayrou and will refuse to take your bet, so you may have to treat it as a virtual wager. Never mind, it’s the thought that counts; and that thought should be to forget all about Nicolas Sarkozy and Ségolène Royal and resign yourself to a French leader with even less charisma than the next British prime minister.
Article continues
Here’s the reason. The polls show that, if Bayrou were to get into the second round of the presidential election, he would beat his opponent, whether Sarkozy or Royal, and on May 7 become Jacques Chirac’s successor. So Bayrou’s problem is to find a way of being runner-up in the first round. Until recently, that seemed impossible. The final looked like a certain contest between Sarko and Sego, destined to be close. That was until Royal decided to enter self-destruct mode, carelessly whittling away the public support she had gained in the early, heady days of her candidature.
She will find it difficult to recover from the failure of her “100 promises” speech to inspire, followed by Monday evening’s performance on French television. I have seen only excerpts, but from everything I have been told and read there seems to be a consensus that - discounting the biased views of both her implacable enemies and her sycophantic supporters - she was reasonably relaxed, competent in presentation, and made no specific mistakes. But - and it is an essential but - she was not exciting, charismatic or possessed of obvious leadership qualities. She needed to be sparkling to revive her campaign and reverse her decline in popularity. She wasn’t.
Enter Bayrou, who has been patiently waiting for just such an opportunity. His ratings in public opinion polls has been rising quietly but significantly. Before Royal’s television appearance he had reached 16% for the first round on April 22, against her 23%. (Le Pen looks out of the running; his shock second place in the 2002 elections will not be repeated.) But Bayrou’s graph is on the up whereas Royal’s is sliding; the gap is far from unbridgeable. Moreover, if the polls keep showing that Royal will be easily beaten by Sarkozy in a run-off, I see a flight of socialists to Bayrou in the first round, to ensure that he makes the final, with an excellent chance of winning. The other day, a separate poll showed that 55% hoped that he would reach the second round.
He may not be well known abroad, but he has long been a fixture in French politics - leader of the third largest party in the national assembly, the centrist UDF (Union for French Democracy), a former minister for education and a candidate in the 2002 presidential elections; he came fourth. He is 55, from an agricultural background near the Pyrenees, has six children, loves and breeds horses, and has written several books, mainly on French history. His manner is usually subdued (though his speeches have recently acquired a more emphatic delivery), and his policies are worthy without any hint of excitement or great originality. He calls for a government of national unity; he is at his most impressive when castigating the political elite and the media for being out of touch with the people.
How could the French possibly elect someone they have found so uninspiring for so long? Easy. Because half the country hates Sarkozy, and the other half can’t stand Royal, or at least finds her unsuitable for the highest office. The election will be fought largely on the “Anyone but …” principle. My money says that the “anyone” will be Bayrou.
Forcing schoolchildren to read the great English classic novelists and poets - as announced last week by education secretary Alan Johnson - seems, on the surface, a good thing. Yet, unexpectedly, I find myself mainly on the side of the sceptics of such ring-fencing.
I first learned English when I was 10 or 11, but I do not think that my experience of being force-fed the classics at my English-speaking school differed much from that of my fellow pupils. The result, far from conferring on me the valuable gift of being able to appreciate and take a lifetime’s pleasure from the greats, was the opposite. I was put off Shakespeare (and have only partly recovered), hated Milton (and, as a consequence suspected all poetry), and disliked Dickens (I am over that one). I was made to read Pride and Prejudice and Middlemarch by a girlfriend. The compulsion was no less strong than if the school had applied it, and the result was the same. Austen and Eliot were spoiled for me for decades. They are not authors meant to be read by adolescent boys (just as I have not met a girl who liked Dickens or Conrad while still a teenager). But school syllabuses rarely take into account those sexual differences.
The dilemma is that if you leave it to government departments to draw up a list of compulsories, it will be full of dense, boring, difficult-to-read, and (to a schoolchild) often incomprehensible pre-20th century novels. But if you don’t insist on the classics, the children will be reading books chosen mainly for their allegiance to the fashionable criteria of diversity, inclusiveness, and “relevance” to the children’s own lives.
· This week Marcel saw Eartha Kitt perform live: “Aged 80, looks 55, sings and slinks like a 30-year-old. Enthralling, as legends should be.” He also saw The Black Book, Paul Verhoeven’s film, set in Holland under Nazi occupation: “An exciting thriller which also asks some pertinent questions about the nature of collaboration with the enemy.”
Technorati Tags: marcel berlins, guardian, françois bayrou, udf, union nationale, président, france, 2007, présidentielle, sarkozy, ségolène royal, sarkozy2007
One Response to “Marcel Berlins, GUARDIAN : le prochain Président de la France se nommera FRANCOIS BAYROU”
By THE GUARDIAN - BAYROU on Feb 22, 2007
Je vous invité à lire les commentaires de l’article de Marcel Berlins dans Comment is free. Très intéressants:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2017850,00.html
Koolio
February 21, 2007 4:48 AM
Bayrou has some sensible ideas, like sorting out France’s messy public debt and introducing a fiscal borrowing policy like Gordon Brown’s “Golden Rule”. Despite a past spent shared in government with the right, he’s on the left now, saying he’d pick a Prime Minister from the left, and apparently a group of senior leftist civil servants has just jumped onboard his bandwagon, as if that will make a difference.
Nevertheless, he’s another Father Christmas candidate, promising nice things to all those good French citizens, stroking their egos with his “I’m an outsider” stance, this despite being in politics forever, indeed like Segolene Royal he’s an ex-MEP and Education Minister from the 1990s. He also wants to introduce proportional representation in France, noble perhaps but it would suit his party, as well as the National Front and Trotskyist Dictatorship parties too and would probably encourage more horse trading in parliament.
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bohemian75
February 21, 2007 4:54 AM
Marcel, I loved Dickens as a teenager. But I got to know him first through BBC dramatisations, of which there seem in my memory to have been a new one each year. Then came the books. They do still make’em like that, don’t they?
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jeremyjames
February 21, 2007 8:50 AM
@ Marcel Berlins:
“But - and it is an essential but - she (Segolene Royal) was not exciting, charismatic or possessed of obvious leadership qualities. She needed to be sparkling to revive her campaign and reverse her decline in popularity. She wasn’t.”
If it’s sparkle you’re looking for, that rules out Bayrou straight away. He has all the sparkle of a cow chewing the cud plus a stubborn way of answering the question he wanted asked and not the one that was.
Mme Royale was far more impressive than I thought she might be with some very sensible and practical ideas.
The biggest danger to her is the infinite capacity of the Left to auto-destruct. Apart from the neo-Left groupuscules, already people are saying ‘oh, I’ll vote for her in the second round.’
If they pursue that loony line of thought then she won’t get into the second round.
Sometimes one can be forgiven for thinking that the Left suffers from a death wish.
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jeremyjames
February 21, 2007 9:08 AM
@ Marcel Berlins:
“But - and it is an essential but - she (Segolene Royal) was not exciting, charismatic or possessed of obvious leadership qualities. She needed to be sparkling to revive her campaign and reverse her decline in popularity. She wasn’t.”
If it’s sparkle you’re looking for, that rules out Bayrou straight away. He has all the sparkle of a cow chewing the cud plus a stubborn way of answering the question he wanted asked and not the one that was.
Mme Royale was far more impressive than I thought she might be with some very sensible and practical ideas.
The biggest danger to her is the infinite capacity of the Left to auto-destruct. Apart from the neo-Left groupuscules, already people are saying ‘oh, I’ll vote for her in the second round.’
If they pursue that loony line of thought then she won’t get into the second round.
Sometimes one can be forgiven for thinking that the Left suffers from a death wish.
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dissidentstockbroker
February 21, 2007 9:45 AM
I can’t agree with your premise that ‘half the country hates Sarkozy’, I just don’t think that is true. His appeal is much broader than that, and he has cleverly courted the Front National support in his time as Interior Minister.
For me, and I hope that I am right, the French realize that a certain break with the statist past is necessary, and Sarko is the candidate who can pull that off.
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JFenby
February 21, 2007 9:55 AM
Since the left or right candidates have to pull in second round votes from the centre, there is, indeed, a certain apparently attractive logic in imagining a centrist pulling in votes from the moderate left and right. KLecanuet had the same notion in the 60s and Giscard in teh 70s and Barre in the 80s. It’s that old search for the elusive two-thirds backing that Giscard wrote about. The trouble is that, as with Barre, the centre lacks the muscle for the first round. Provincial notables do not an electoral army make.
Bayrou’s record as Education Minister is hardly inspiring. As I said in an earlier post, his main poll-boosting appeal vis-a-vis the two leading candidates may be simply that he’s neither of the above. Anyway, it must be a nice moment on the magazine covers for a man who asked me a few years ago to explain to him the secret of Charles Kennedy’s success.
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Cameron1
February 21, 2007 10:47 AM
Years ago, Raymond Barre was a similarly avuncular character who promised to reunite a polarised electorate. He turned out to be merely a diversion and got nowhere. The French do like an old man as they always equate age with wisdom as they are deferential in a way that we used to be in UK - they may have now finally realised their mistake with Chirac. Sarkozy will win because a)the French will run scared at some of the ill thought out socialist ideologue policies Royal might implement like renationalising banks etc a la Mitterrand (!) and b) many, many French people agree with him that the rioters were racaille (scum)and had no excuse for their yobbish behaviour.
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parislink
February 21, 2007 10:55 AM
maybe half the country doesn’t HATE Sarkozy, but it is certainly afraid of him. Royal’s problem is that she doesn’t convince people internationally, and that is inevitably going to be the big question - as a President is less concerned with domestic affairs than they are claiming right now.
Anyway, nice to see the Grauniad following my editorial line of three weeks ago
http://www.paris-link.com
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liberalexpat
February 21, 2007 11:08 AM
Marcel,
Beware the polls with the French electorate in such a febrile mood (80 per cent still think the election result is unclear).
The latest poll, results out today, show a bounce in Sego’s favour - with her getting 29 per cent in the first round (to Bayrou’s 16) and 49 in the second. His attacks on ces messieurs de Paris are playing well in the provinces, but probably not well enough for him to make it past the first round.
dissidentstockbroker,
Hmm. Sarko is a minister in the outgoing government, whose economic policies have greatly exacerbated the crisis without providing any radical new solutions; lately he has been tacking to the centre, advocating traditional dirigiste rather than neoliberal policies. How, pray, does he represent a break with the past?
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Plataea
February 21, 2007 11:34 AM
Royal may lack charisma however, the UK has seen what happens when you have a charismatic politician (hi Tony!). Given the problems that face France, what is needed is competence. Sarky may or may not be competent, however, based on the media reports, he seems to have an ego problem (or a Napoleon problem?). “Farmer Jim” Bayrou may seem like the right chap but may in fact be all gas and no substance. Royal may be boring - but what do you want ego? gas? or competence? Its time both voters & the media got a grip and focused a bit more on what candidates were offering and a bit less on personality. And finally, I reckon Royal has a more human touch than the others (hence her popularity in her “home” region) as shown on the recent television appearance.
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boule75
February 21, 2007 11:42 AM
Hating Sarkozy? It is a bit tough, but disturbed and dubious by him is certainly true for most frogs. How can you trust a minister that will go kissing Blair and bowing before Bush while asserting that “France was certainly arrogant in 2003″?
And most French are certainly very dubious about Mrs. Royal. Digging in her thoughs is like trying to explore the void. She’s compasionate, very compasionate indeed, she’d likle every student to receive free healthcare, every poor to receive more money, every teacher too, every enterprise to earn more money, every women to be as proud as every male, and every sufferring to be adequately tackled by a decisive action of the state. And “China is our next frontier”, she says. Hum… I undestand nothing, and my assumption is that there is nothing to undestand, she will promise everything.
So there may be Bayrou left.
But make no mistake: enthusiasm is currently on Bayrou’s side, and it is not a mere rejection of the others that embolden him now. Appart from him being apparently honest, rather bold and constant (_he_ resisted Sarkozy and Chirac, refused to become prime minister or minister thrice…), his project will fit most French once they will take the time to digg into it (see www.bayrou.fr if you dare read French). He may appear less attractive that both others, but his sentences have a meaning, and he can find very sharp and accurate words quickly. He believes in democracy, he believes that France and the French do not want to follow the Us-Chines-Uk “work-or-die” approach to world affairs, that they do not want to be deprived of their democratic rights by a stateless financial elite that despise them and owns the entreprises, the medias, the universities… And in the same time, he believes that the free enterprises are the best creators of wealth. In short, where Sarkozy would defend “in Dollar we trust”, where Royal would sing a godless “Lacrimosa”, he simply defends “Liberté, Egalité, Fraternité”. He may win.
Best kisses from Paris.
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PlasticGypsies
February 21, 2007 12:29 PM
Best news i’ve read in ages. I was planning to ignore the french elections since i live in the UK but i will be voting for Beyrou. Sarkozy is a crazy media obsessed populist who will become the french equivalent of Berlusconi. And as far as Ms Royal and hubby Francois Hollande we have a team that will without a doubt bring as much charisma and efficiency as Lionel Jospin did during his time.
At least Bayrou will be capitalising on the large protest vote market which will for once escape le Pen’s far right or any of these many dissident marxist sub-party… Add all the extremes together and you get easily 30%.. I’m definitely happy with centrist protest voters. This should make an interesting turn in the politic scene.
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steg
February 21, 2007 1:39 PM
‘just as I have not met a girl who liked Dickens or Conrad while still a teenager’
I was a teenage girl who liked Dickens. I didn’t like his portrayal of women much - the heroines were always weeping, fainting wimps, but I liked his books dispite these failings.
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tsavo
February 21, 2007 2:00 PM
Will anything change for the Arab and Black populations in the ghettoes? Have the candidates addressed this?
Unemployment, racist recruitment policies, police racial profiling etc.
Are the candidates trying to win the ethnic populations over? I just wonder, because the riots will happen again without any changes to the current system.
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Eachran
February 21, 2007 2:57 PM
Crumbs, nice Mr Berlins as the political correspondent. Why not?
A few weeks ago I tried to encapsulate the candidates’ personalities in Guignol speak. My French friends were not disappointed.
Sarkojac as a door to door brush salesman.
President Royal as Head of a Gals private school.
Bayrou with his plouc look. (it rhymes better in French but I am sure that you can all cope with that).
I agree with Mr Berlins liking M. Bayrou, I always have (liked M. Bayrou that is), and I would vote for him : but Mr Berlins forgot to mention that Pres Mitterand once commented that M. Bayrou would make a good President - goodness me!
This week Eachran took his English based friends on a tour of Romanesque architecture in the SW and discussed the influence of royal lineages on the current shape of Europe. Yawn yawn, he said. But that was after far too much wine.
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dissidentstockbroker
February 21, 2007 5:07 PM
Mr Fenby : “Bayrou’s record as Education Minister is hardly inspiring”
The Education post in France is a bit like Northern Ireland for UK governments up to 1995, ie. the impossible portfolio. Those pesky students who, in France like nowhere else, have to be listened to in all their glorious stupidity. Anyway, didn’t Royal herself royally do nothing much in that post ? (I may be wrong there..)
Liberalexpat: “How, pray, does he represent a break with the past?”
Well, I don’t share your view that the right has exacerbated France’s problems, for a start. Ok, they haven’t arrested the “decline” either…
Sarko can’t say all he wants to say (yet), but I do think he presents a refreshing frankness, willingness to explain a problem, not just call for “plus de moyens” which is all Ségo does. He doesn’t do “mesurettes” like the others.